CRI

 [ABSTRACT]

  A region's total fertility rate is the result of a complex interplay of factors such as macro-social changes, community characteristics, and the values of community members. In particular, unlike the central government's uniform declining birthrate response policy since 2018(Support for Local Government Declining Birthrate Measures), customized policies such as declining birthrate measures linked to local demographics are being promoted, so the declining birthrate phenomenon should be understood in the context of local communities, including social structures and institutions, social problems, and social psychology, as well as local settlement conditions, economic levels, labor status, and awareness of childbirth.

  This study aims to empirically analyze the factors affecting the total fertility rate and crude birth rate at the national and regional levels through the selection of indicators that reflect the trend of the times. This study analyzes 16 metropolitan areas(excluding Sejong City) and spans the time period from 2005 to 2022. 

  The dependent variables are total fertility rate and crude birth rate, and the independent variables' value factors are value about child, crude marriage rate, and age at first marriage(wife), economic factors are private education costs, apartment sales price index, and apartment rental price index. gender equality factors are female employment rate(20~49 years old), proportion of women on leave before and after childbirth, proportion of men on new childcare leave, and household division of labor, and regional policy environment factors are number of child care centers per thousand infants, proportion of social welfare budget, and financial independence.

  The panel regression analyzed the factors affecting total and crude birth rates and found those.

  Based on the findings, we recommend the following directions for maternity support policies. First, Chungbuk Province's marriage support policy to raise fertility rates needs to be maintained. Based on data from 2005-2022, the rising age of first marriage and the strong value of marriage-based procreation require marriage support policies, unlike countries that are more unmarried or marry later and have higher fertility rates than Korea. The recent Chungbuk People's Perception Survey by Choi Eun-hee et al.(2023) shows a high demand for marriage support policies among young adults in their 20s, which supports this study. In particular, people in their 20s need marriage support because they are looking for jobs and have low incomes.

  Second, a gender-equitable parental leave system should be established to increase the number of new men taking parental leave. Even without legal and institutional support, such as an increase in the income replacement rate, it is necessary to support men to take advantage of parental leave and to continue to develop a non-discriminatory workplace culture and promote male childcare participation based on gender equality in the family.

  Third, the apartment rental price index is related to the crude birth rate, so the system to ease the burden of housing costs should be maintained continuously. Although housing costs in Chungbuk are lower than in large cities, life tasks such as employment, marriage, and childbirth are concentrated in young adults with a weak socioeconomic foundation, resulting in delays and abandonment. Therefore, policies such as expanding the supply of rental housing and easing the interest burden on loans are needed.

  Fourth, it is necessary to expand the budget for healthcare in the social welfare budget, especially to monitor the medical environment for infants and young children. As the number of pediatricians in the region decreases as the number of infants and young children decreases, a vicious cycle of pediatric care difficulties is occurring, so it is necessary to expand the healthcare budget to expand medical personnel and infrastructure centered on public medical centers.

  Fifth, the quality of childcare facilities needs to be expanded. Expanding the number of childcare centers is an unrealistic way to improve the fertility rate, as corporate facilities are closing down due to the decline in the number of infants and toddlers and are unable to meet their capacity. However, expanding facilities that support niche care, such as part-time care, where mismatches are occurring, and expanding excellent facilities that can be left with peace of mind is necessary for the healthy growth of infants and to improve the childcare satisfaction of working parents.

  Finally, due to the nature of time series data, this study has a constant trend, which may point out the problem of autocorrelation, so it is necessary to set up a model through more sophisticated analysis, such as analysis using the increase of each variable. In addition, fertility rate is a qualitative area that cannot be confirmed by objective indicators, so it is necessary to reflect the voices of citizens through interviews in order to establish a system to improve the fertility rate.